The Polish economy is entering the era of “silvers” much faster than anyone expected. The statistics are brutal: according to the European Commission, in three decades there will be more than 50 retirees for every 100 working people. In such a scenario, longer professional activity of mature individuals is no longer a matter of “goodwill” or choice – it is the only way to prevent the Polish economy from simply collapsing.
The conclusion? If we want silvers to remain active tomorrow, we must start taking real care of Generation X today. It is today’s 45- and 50-year-olds who will determine whether, in a few years, the Polish labour market gains a new army of experienced leaders, or faces a massive competence gap that cannot be filled. The causes, consequences and potential remedies for the demographic crisis are discussed by experts from the advisory board of the GeeX study – a project analysing the needs of mature employees.
Statistics Poland leaves no doubt: by 2040, 2 million people will disappear from the Polish labour market, and by mid-century this gap may grow to 5 million. For the economy, this is an alarm signal – in the coming decades we will have to maintain growth with a significantly smaller workforce. Although public debate points to the activation of women, migrants and people with disabilities as a solution, these reserves are already largely exhausted. This is confirmed by Eurostat data. In 2024, “labour market slack”, i.e. unused labour potential, amounted to just 5.0% in Poland. This is the lowest result in the entire European Union.
The Polish labour market is operating almost at the limit of its capacity. It will be difficult to fill workforce gaps solely with unemployed or inactive individuals, because there are simply too few of them. In this situation, the professional activity of mature individuals ceases to be just a social issue – it becomes one of the foundations of economic stability.
– Demographics leave no doubt: there will simply be fewer hands to work, and the market as we know it is fading away. In this new reality, Generation X becomes the “game changer”. We are talking about people between 45 and 60 years of age, who are still often pushed aside as “pre-retirement” workers. This is a mistake – instead of seeing them as players heading to the locker room, leaders should recognise them as the foundation of operational stability – says Tomasz Szklarski, labour market expert and co-creator of the Enpulse platform, supporting organisations in building employee engagement.
Activation instead of disappearing competences
Poland still lags behind many European countries in terms of professional activity among mature individuals. While in Sweden or Ireland this rate reaches 15–20%, in Poland it is almost half that and oscillates at just around 10%. This difference results, among other things, from a longer tradition of senior professional activity in Northern Europe, better access to flexible work arrangements and greater openness to mature employees.
– The pre-retirement moment is crucial for the future of organisations. This is when the fate of enormous capital is decided. If an employee at this stage feels genuinely needed and has the right environment, they often choose to remain active in the labour market for many years. Meanwhile, in Poland we observe a worrying paradox. Professional activity drops sharply precisely at the moment when experience and competences are at their highest. We lose people who, over decades, have built unique knowledge of processes and relationships within companies – emphasises Tomasz Szklarski. – Today, it is representatives of Generation X who hold the keys to the most important managerial and expert positions – they know organisations inside out, often having co-created them. If managers fail to learn how to appreciate and retain them effectively, a significant part of organisational know-how will disappear overnight when they leave – adds the initiator of the GeeX study.
The foundation of the economy
Longer professional activity is one of the simplest ways to improve the financial security of mature individuals. This particularly applies to Generation X – the first generation fully subject to the pension system after the 1999 reform. In this model, there is no room for discretion: the level of benefits depends solely on employment history. Every year of contributions and total work experience matters, directly translating into the amount accumulated in the ZUS account.
– In the current pension system, each year of delaying retirement translates into an increase of up to approx. 10% in benefit value. Over several years, this means an increase of several dozen percent – emphasises Paweł Jaroszek, Member of the Management Board of ZUS. – However, we must look at this more broadly than just through the prism of individual finances. Since seniors already run nearly every second household in the country, their financial stability becomes a direct driver of consumption levels and GDP dynamics. This is precisely the foundation of the “silver economy” – an economy whose performance depends on how long mature individuals remain professionally active – he adds.
A new mathematics of the labour market
European Commission forecasts are alarming: the old-age dependency ratio in Poland will rise from 32% in 2022 to around 55% by mid-century. In such an extremely unfavourable scenario, retaining mature employees in organisations ceases to be a choice or an act of goodwill. It becomes a hard condition for the survival and stability of the entire national economy.
– More and more people continue to work after reaching retirement age. Currently, nearly every seventh pensioner chooses to remain professionally active while simultaneously receiving a pension. This phenomenon shows a shift in attitudes, but from the perspective of system sustainability and demographic challenges, the scale is still insufficient. Financial incentives alone may prove too weak to offset the loss of millions of workers that awaits us in the coming decades – says Paweł Jaroszek.
– We must start acting. Simply expecting people to work longer is not enough – we need to create an environment in which it makes sense. The key is understanding their real needs: what drives them, what challenges they face and what they truly expect from employers – emphasises Tomasz Szklarski. – The level of interest in our GeeX study shows one thing: Generation X is tired of being overlooked and wants to finally be heard. Employers therefore have no choice: they must learn to take its voice seriously – concludes the expert.
