Neither cadastral tax nor subsidies – the real estate market’s fate lies elsewhere

2026 promises to be a “reality check” for the real estate market After a period of rapid growth between 2021-2024 and a distinct slowdown in 2024-2025, the market has entered a phase of fragile equilibrium. On one hand, we see cheaper credit and rising lending activity. On the other, regulatory pressures are mounting, tax discussions are resurfacing, and a potential “planning crisis” looms on the horizon. All this suggests that the coming months could be exceptionally interesting—not due to emotional swings, but because of the complex data puzzle coming together.

“In the years 2021-2024, we experienced very dynamic, even violent price increases. 2024 brought a sharp braking, and 2025 became a moment of winding down the long-term destabilization caused by the pandemic, the ‘Safe Credit 2%’ program, and the war in Ukraine. This is clearly visible in the data: in Q3 2025, listing prices rose by merely 1.6% year-on-year, while transaction prices practically stalled, recording a symbolic +0.5% y/y. Today we have balance, but what about tomorrow? The future direction is not yet a foregone conclusion. Everything will depend on several important factors acting simultaneously, rather than a single simple impulse,” emphasizes Maciej Gołębiewski, a real estate investment expert and creator of dobregonajmu.pl.

Forecasts for 2026 fall into a “calm start, rebound later” scenario. PKO BP Bank signals that the first half of 2026 may be a period where the market “searches for a bottom,” with a rebound expected only in the second half. Meanwhile, JLL experts speak of growth in the range of 2-3% annually—a pace close to inflation—meaning no fireworks, but a return to trend. The key question, however, is where this rebound would come from.

Cheaper money returns to the game

Recent years marked a transition from very expensive credit and tightly restricted borrowing capacity to a gradual loosening of monetary policy. The drop in interest rates to around 4% at the end of 2025 facilitated easier access to bank financing. In Q3 2025, the number of new mortgages was approximately 41% higher than a year prior, and the entirety of 2025 likely closed with over PLN 100 billion in granted housing loans. This is a clear signal that credit is once again driving demand for real estate.

“With rates falling toward the 3.5% range, the average borrowing capacity grows by some 8-10%, and installments begin to fall in real terms. This makes a huge difference. Suddenly, people who were priced out of the market a moment ago fit within it again. Others can afford a better location or a slightly larger apartment,” says Maciej Gołębiewski. “If supply does not rise quickly at the same time, more real buyers simply appear on the market competing for the same pool of apartments. Prices then rise not because the ‘market wants to rise,’ but because improved credit availability shifts the demand boundary. This is exactly the same pattern we have seen many times—it starts quietly, almost imperceptibly, and then, when credit really starts working, its impact on prices becomes increasingly visible,” the expert adds.

“It is also worth noting that there is no indication that the 2026 real estate market will be driven by mass subsidy programs or administrative solutions. In practice, this means that the key driver will be cheaper commercial mortgages; this process will be spread over time and more predictable. Instead of a single moment of strong buyer influx, the market will see successive groups of buyers entering,” notes Maciej Gołębiewski.

Cadastral tax in the background, planning on the horizon

Among the regulatory factors that will influence the real estate market in the coming years, two themes regularly return: a potential cadastral tax and spatial planning reform. The former has long remained primarily a political narrative tool for improving housing availability. In the opinion of experts, these are empty slogans—introducing such a tax would be too complex. For the market, it is often less important whether the tax actually enters into force, and more important how the discussion itself affects investor sentiment.

“A much more concrete and tangible factor is the spatial planning reform. Here we are not talking about declarations, but hard deadlines and real consequences. Municipalities must enact general plans , and if they fail to do so on time, there will be a problem with issuing new zoning decisions. This means one thing: fewer plots of land where new investments can be quickly started. This is not yet visible in apartment prices because several years pass from the decision to build to the finished premises. However, the market knows that the supply of new apartments will soon slow down. And if demand returns at the same time, the natural consequence will be pressure on price growth in subsequent quarters. Therefore, already in 2026, we may see the first effects in the form of greater caution from developers, slower launches of new projects, and further rationing of supply,” emphasizes the expert.

Shrinking supply

In 2025, signs of relative market saturation were visible. On one hand, there was a large supply of apartments in major cities—the result of what developers started building years earlier in a completely different reality. On the other hand, by the end of the year, it was clear that developers had become very cautious with new projects. In November, construction began on fewer than 8,000 apartments, which is about 50% less than the month before and almost 30% less than a year earlier—the weakest result since the spring of 2023.

“What does this mean in practice? Although there are still plenty of apartments on offer today, fewer and fewer new ones are joining the ‘queue’ for coming years. This doesn’t raise prices overnight, but it means that when demand starts to grow, the market will hit a supply barrier much faster. And then price pressure returns much quicker than it seems,” says Maciej Gołębiewski.

“Add to this construction costs. Building estates is simply becoming more expensive. Estimates speak of a 3-4% year-on-year increase. It’s not just materials and labor, but also new requirements and regulations that add extra zlotys to every square meter. As a result, new projects start from a higher profitability threshold, and developers have less room to lower prices. Even if the market calms down for a moment, this cost foundation acts as a hard floor—new apartments enter the offer at higher prices than those from earlier stages,” he adds.

Demographics change the perspective

Demographics in 2026 will be one of those factors easily misread if looked at too superficially. It is often reduced to the simple conclusion that since there are fewer people in Poland, the demand for apartments must weaken. However, the real estate market does not react to the number of inhabitants alone, but to the number and structure of households. The household is the real market participant, not the individual. More apartments are needed not because there are more people, but because they live differently than before.

“More singles, smaller households, more divorces—suddenly it turns out that housing demand isn’t disappearing, just changing shape. Additionally, demographics have a strong geographic dimension: large cities and agglomerations continue to attract, while depopulation hits smaller towns harder. That is why in 2026 demographics do not necessarily mean price drops in key centers—rather, they will reinforce market polarization: metropolises may hold demand, while smaller markets will be more sensitive to population outflow and liquidity drops,” notes Maciej Gołębiewski.

“An additional element of demand in this context remains Ukrainian citizens. Their presence in Poland is increasingly less temporary and more often becoming a permanent element of the market structure. About a million people hold a UKR PESEL number today, and nearly two-thirds of them are working. This means they generate real income and can make real housing decisions. Yes, some choose to rent. However, it is evident that a growing percentage is deciding to purchase property—today about 15% of Ukrainian citizens living in Poland own their own apartment. This percentage will grow. Demand related to migration has not yet been fully realized and will gradually reveal itself in the market in the coming years,” the expert points out.

Two speeds of the rental market

2026 will show that the market operates differently depending on the location and form of property use. In some cities and segments, the situation will be calm and predictable; in others, more restrictions and rule changes will appear. The most stable part will remain the long-term rental sector, while the short-term segment will be gradually organized and surrounded by regulations. This won’t trigger a single violent movement, but over time it will alter the decisions of owners and investors, and thus the supply-demand layout of the housing market.

“In the coming months, we likely won’t see booms or crashes in long-term rentals. Rents will grow roughly at the pace of inflation, i.e., 2-3% annually—sometimes a bit faster, sometimes slower, depending on the city. This means there will be no pressure pushing apartment prices up significantly by itself, but it’s also hard to speak of a factor that would lower them,” says Maciej Gołębiewski. “An important element will be the development of the PRS (Private Rented Sector)—in selected districts, they will increase competition on the rental side, which may cool price ambitions for strictly investment purchases, especially regarding popular small units,” the expert adds.

“Short-term rental is a completely different story. Regulations will make this segment more difficult, operationally more expensive, and riskier. Some owners will switch to long-term rentals, while others will decide to sell. This won’t be a wave that suddenly floods the market with offers, but rather a gradual process. In tourist cities, this may mean a slight increase in the supply of apartments for sale, which will have a stabilizing effect on prices. In other locations, the effect will be weaker, and the market will ‘absorb’ these units faster. In sum, 2026 will not bring a price shock, but will be another step towards a more orderly, local market, increasingly less driven by simple, one-off impulses,” the expert concludes.

What is the bottom line?

Comparing forecasts from major analytical teams—from PKO BP, through JLL and SonarHome, to comments from Colliers—a rather rare consensus is visible today: 2026 is shaping up to be neither a year of collapse nor a repeat of the rapid increases of recent years. Analysts speak rather of a calm beginning and a gradual rebound in the second half of the year, driven by cheaper credit and increasingly felt supply-side constraints.

“In practice, this means three things. First, timing matters—the January-June period offers more space for calm decisions and negotiations, while the end of the year will test buyers’ patience. Second, the rental market is entering a phase of greater formalization, especially in the short-term segment, which will change investors’ calculations and shift some apartments between segments. Third, it is supply—the braking of new construction, more expensive execution, and planning reform—that may become the key constraint in the coming years, especially after 2026,” lists Maciej Gołębiewski.

“The core point is this: 2026 does not have to bring spectacular rises or sharp falls. Instead, it may be the year in which the market clearly sets the direction for the following years. And that is precisely why it is worth looking at it coolly, through the prism of data and processes, rather than one-off headlines,” concludes the expert.